April Fool's day begins with the clowns (I just had to 🤣) returning to action as Man United travel to the high-flying Nottingham Forest to get arguably the most important part of their season up and running.
They didn't make this restart easy for us though 😬.
United were on a good run of form prior to the international break with it probably coming at the wrong time for Ruben Amorim as it was perhaps the first time in his tenure that his players showed any signs of understanding his system and displaying some consistency.
Can they pick up where they left off? At The City Ground though, that will be easier said than done.
Predicted Lineup
There are a lot more options now for Amorim after the positive updates about players coming back from injury. Thankfully, no one got injured during the break meaning that the United boss will have a fairly strong squad for the first time in a while.
Onana in goal behind a back three of Mazraoui, a returning Maguire and De Ligt. With his suspension over, Dorgu to play as the LWB with Dalot remianing on the right. The Portuguese was showing improvement after picking up a goal and assist in his last two games. We need him to carry on in this manner.
Ugarte was another player who had his injury struggles before the break although he did start in the win over Leicester. He keeps his place next to the skipper who has been on another level in the last couple of months.
However, with the form of Casemiro, is there a chance that Amorim could keep him in the lineup? This could push Bruno into that number 10 position whilst providing that midfield solidity which can allow the captain to play with a bit more freedom.
I wouldn't be opposed to that.
I doubt the manager will do this as he seems to be a fan of playing Bruno in that deeper role. Who could argue with him given the form of United's best player.
Garnacho and Zirkzee will continue as the two number 10s and Hojlund to be ahead of them as the striker. All three have also shown an upturn in form as they have been involved in the goals lately. This is a massive boost because both Garnacho and Hojlund were struggling before the international break. In that Leicester win though, they were on the score sheet with the Dane even bagging a goal for Denmark against Portugal.
The boss will be hoping to see them continue this form.
Approach
It's really difficult to judge what United will do. We still seem to be a side that prefers to play on the counter as that is when we look most comfortable.
The game against Leicester proved this as after taking the lead in the first half, United sat back and looked to hit them on the break. The relegation side had 54% possession.
This will probably be what these players would want to do again and with it being an away game, perhaps that could be a reason to do so?
The issue with this is that, Forest like to play in this manner as well. Nuno Espirito Santo's side average just 40% possession (FBREF) which is the lowest in the division. Their game is based solely on counters and set-pieces, both of which are weaknesses of ours.
When United do have more of the ball, that is when we struggle as breaking down opponents have been a kryptonite of ours for a long time. If Forest are smart (which they are) they will give us the ball and ask us to try and get through them giving them every opportunity to hit us on the counter.
Where United have been good though is defensively. I don't think we're getting as much credit as we deserve from a defensive point of view.
A lot of those goals conceded are more because of inidiviudual mistakes rather than poor defensive work. Away from home, United have conceded just 15 which is the third fewest in the league and in the last seven games, we've conceded just 8 in all competitions, the same as the previous seven.
More than that, we've seen that improvement up front as we've managed to score 15 goals in these last seven. Hojlund, Garnacho, Zirkzee and of course, Bruno have all been on the score sheet giving us this surge in attack.
It's also been the type of goals being scored that will put a smile on Amorim's face. United have scored direct free-kicks, penalties, headers and open play goals.
Form
The form in the league hasn't been anything special recently (not like it has been at any point this season) as we've won two, drawn two and lost one of our last five.
The previous seven in all comps though, have seen us lose just one which was on penalties to Fulham in the FA Cup. In fact, United have only lost three of their ten played in the Premier League this year.
Amorim has seen his side score 9 goals in their last four. Their previous four had seen just 2 scored.
As mentioned goals have returned, we still concede few and we also picked up our first clean sheet in six PL games.
The win over Leicester put us back into our favorite position of 13th in the table, which is where we've been all season, it seems. However, with just 37 points, the highest points tally we could get is 64 which would mean we avoid our lowest-ever points haul.
But we know that that won't happen especially when looking at some of the teams we've still got to face 😬.
Forest
As for our opponents, what a season they are having!
It's incredible to think that one team is fighting for the top 4 and in the semis of the FA Cup while the other was not so long ago, in a bit of a relegation scrap.
Crazy to think which is which 😳.
But Forest are the league's shining light of the season given how they've performed. Santo's team find themselves 3rd in the table above current champions City and just 4 points behind Arsenal.
In their 29 matches, they have 16 wins, six draws and seven losses with 49 scored and 35 conceded. Those 35 conceded is only bettered by the top two and Crystal Palace, who are also having an amazing season.
Forest also have the 4th highest scorer in the league with Chris Wood having scored 18 so far (including one at Old Trafford); former Red Anthony Elanga sits on 8 assists (joint-seventh) with his teammate Morgan Gibbs-White on 7 assists. On top of that, goalkeeper Matz Sels has kept 12 clean sheets, the most of them all.
Some ridiculous stats 👏.
However, their recent form is similar to ours as they have two wins, two losses and one draw but those two victpries came in their last two a 4-2 triumph at Ipswich followed by a 1-0 win over the champions.
That win over City meant that Forest have now beaten the likes of the two Manchester sides, Spurs and even Liverpool at Anfield which remains Arne Slot's only defeat this season. They also picked up an impressive point against Arsenal and the biggest victory of the season for anyone as they hammered Brighton 7-0, a scoreline we're a little too familiar with 😐. That win came after they themselves were hammered 5-0 at Bournemouth making that trouncing all the more incredible.
At The City Ground, Forest are one of the best teams at home. Sitting 3rd in that table as well, they have eight wins, four draws and just two defeats in their 14 matches. While the 23 they've scored isn't amazing, what is is the amount conceded.
The 10 Forest have let in is the fewest at home of anyone!
With our overall struggles to score and chances of conceding, this makes an already difficult game even harder.
The one advantage United could have over our hosts is that they went all the way to penalties in their win over Brighton on Saturday night in the FA Cup. This means it is a quick turnaround for them which isn't something they're used to. However, the energy they would've gotten after such a victory and going into the semis will most definitely have them up for this one.
Recent Meetings
United have had the better of the two sides over most of the recent years although in this fixture last season, Forest beat us 2-1 just before the end of 2023.
They also beat United at Old Trafford earlier this season in one of Ruben Amorim's first games in charge of the club. Forest will be looking to do the double over us for the first time since the 83/84 campaign in the old League Division One. They actually won three games in a row before United managed to get a victory.
Prediction
Given the many different factors like our upturn in form, positive energy as the manager says, players returning, and also Forest having played just three days ago in a match that went to penalties, there is a chance for United.
On the other hand, Forest are bouyant after that win over Brighton, they are brilliant at home and are one of the best teams in the league, there is a chance for them as well.
This all makes me believe that this will be a 1-1 draw. I don't think that that will be a bad result for us.
What do you reckon is going to happen when Ruben Amorim meets fellow Portuguese Nuno Espirito Sancho?
Santo? 😅
Background player image: Alejandro Garnacho | Image via Manchester United official X (@ManUtd)