The circus, I mean Manchester Derby 😅, rolls into town this weekend and it really is a bit of a pantomime.
Both clubs who've dominated this league for so long are in very different but equally terrible situations.
The champions are seeing their title slip further and further away with every game due to dropped points whereas the Red half is struggling to make it into the top 10!
As has been seen across the web this week, this could be the first game in history where both teams lose.
This is gonna be interesting.
Predicted Lineup
I've gone for something similar to that of Arsenal. I can see Amorim trying to implement what he did in the first half at The Emirates for which he will need a similar XI.
There are some surprises in there but with this manager, we should be expecting that.
Yoro comes in as the third centre-back with Mazraoui moving into right wing-back and Dalot shifting over to the left.
This will mean that Amad is NOT in the starting lineup as was against Arsenal although I wouldn't rule out the 22-year-old playing as one of the CAMs.
Bruno Fernandes to drop deeper into the number 8 role as he was a player that Amorim used as CM instead of Mainoo, Eriksen or Casemiro in the defeat to Arsenal. The captain will be partnered with Ugarte who featured for the last 10 minutes on Thursday meaning that he will probably start this game and be fresher than most.
Mount was really good in the win over Plzen when he came on and was also important to United in terms of that press and work rate in last Wednesday's loss to the Gunners. I believe Amorim will look for the number 7 to do that hard working job again.
Next to him will be Garnacho. The 20-year-old only featured for the final 10 minutes against Plzen and while he started against Forest, was ineffectual in that loss. However, he was part of the starting team at Arsenal as well in this same position. He can provide that X-factor in attack, something that we may need.
Hojlund will be up front once again. I think the manager will be looking for him to put in a shift which will be a hard ask for someone who played almost a whole half of football as he did on Thursday night. He also started in both losses to Arsenal and Forest.
A lot of work for the Dane.
Approach
As I said, the way we played in the first 45 at Arsenal was actually pretty good. We controlled the game, frustrated the Gunners, won the ball back quickly and had more possession.
While yes we may have not done anything going forward, that sort of control of possession is not something we’ve seen from United in a long time when playing any of the top teams.
It was refreshing and a step forward.
Martinez missed that game due to suspension but as he is available for today, we know that he makes a difference when it comes to playing out from the back as he is our best defender on the ball.
I think Amorim will want to build up from the defense as often as possible and will need his back line to be good in possession. City do press quite high so there will be pressure on us.
The only problem with that first half was not doing anything in attack. United’s first opportunity came towards the end of the half when Dalot flashed a shot across goal when he should’ve at least hit the target. A whole half of football before you have your first attempt on goal is simply not good enough regardless of who you’re playing.
City are a side that like to cross the ball and have more than enough quality to put good balls into the box. They also have a couple of big players like Josko Gvardiol, Ruben Dias and Erling Haaland who can all cause us problems.
This area is an obvious weakness of United’s and is an aspect of our game that Guardiola will try to exploit. Onana has also been very shaken in recent games and much like the Viktoria Plzen manager Miroslav Koubek said, will probably tell his team to shoot whenever possible.
The midfield is actually the area where I believe we have the upper hand, for once.
United have ALL their midfielders available while City are struggling in that department. No Rodri and they aren’t the same side. With the way Ugarte is playing, he can give us that defensive solidity in midfield while allowing his partner the freedom to strut their stuff. I believe he holds the key for United.
There’s also been a lack of chance creation for the striker this season even if we do miss a lot of big chances. But when looking at those opportunities, few of them are actually for the number 9.
However, when supplying Hojlund, he does put the ball in the back of the net. The Dane has six direct goal involvements in his last four games including 2 goals in the win over Plzen on Thursday.
People may think that Amorim could do what he did against City while managing Sporting. However, that 4-1 win masked what was actually not the performance he waslooking for stating that you cannot play this way when you’re at United.
Sporting had less than 30% possession, had just 9 shots and relied on two penalties for 2 of their goals. I doubt that Amorim will look to do the same. Perhaps that transitional, defend and counter approach is something he could do as a backup if necessary.
Form
United are heading into this game after two straight defeats in the league. When beating Everton 4-0 a couple of weeks ago, things looked to be turning around for MUFC.
However, the 2-0 and 3-2 losses to Arsenal and Forest have dropped United back into 13th (before this weekend’s fixtures) which is where we seem to have been for most of the season.
Andre Onana still holds top spot in the clean sheets charts although he is now tied on 6 with Jordan Pickford and David Raya, but has let in 5 goals in two games and messed up big time for 2 of Forest’s goals. It didn’t get any better in the win over Plzen either as he made the mistake for the Czechs to score in that one.
Our last five in the league is two draws, two wins and one loss. The goal difference has also gone down to just 1 due to these two latest defeats.
On the road, United are also in 13th in the away table. We have three draws, three losses and just one win which was the 3-0 victory over Southampton back in September. The 6 we’ve scored is one of the worst in the league as only Everton, Brentford and Southampton have scored fewer.
A truly terrible record.
What’s worse is that when it comes to playing the big 6 away from home, United still haven’t managed to pick up a win since the 3-0 triumph over spurs in 21/22. The latest trip was that 2-0 loss to Mikel Arteta and Arsenal.
Man City
The Sky Blues somehow have a worse recent record than their neighbors. That takes some doing.
Citeh have been seriously struggling this season and it seemingly came out of nowhere. It really does appear as if they are a one man team as no Rodri, no party.
As bad as they've been, Pep's team are still in the top 4 as they occupy that final Champions League spot. The champions have 27 points from their 15 games with eight wins, three draws and four losses.
Before last week's draw with Palace, they did pick up their first victory in eight with a 3-0 win over Forest who then proceeded to do a number on us in the next game.
In this uncharacteristic run of City's they've won one, drawn two and lost all of the other seven including their most recent match which was a 2-0 defeat at Juventus in the Champions League. During this run, Guardiola also suffered that 4-1 loss to Ruben Amorim's Sporting. He will perhaps look to take revenge for that game.
In these 10 matches, City have scored 12 but conceded a staggering 23!
All of this also means that they are 18th! in the table in terms of the current form with only Leicester and Southampton having a worse record. Those two deserve to be relegated for that.
Very unlike the record 4x in a row Premier League champions.
At the Emptihad, it isn't all doom and gloom as City are 4th in the home table. In their seven matches, they have won five, drawn one and lost one which was that 4-0 defeat at the hands of Spurs.
With 15 scored, only Arsenal (17), Spurs (20) and Brentford (26) have scored more than them at home. But the 10 let in is not something that we usually see from City at home and is actually only one more than United have conceded at Old Trafford.
Shows you how shite we are if even City are better than us in some aspects of the game.
Something that will give them more of an incentive in this game is both Arsenal and Liverpool dropping points in the race for the title. Those two sides were held to draws yesterday which may give City that push to go on and get the 3 points in the derby.
Should they get that win, City will be 6 points behind LFC at the top although they have a game in hand.
What they also have is the better form against United in recent seasons as you'll see below.
And while Erling Haaland much like his team, isn't performing at the moment, one of his favorite opponents is MUFC. In his four games against us in the league, the striking viking has scored 6 goals including a hat-trick in this fixture two seasons ago.
Phil Foden is another lacking for form as after winning the Premier League player of the season last year, he has not been able to replicate that form this season as in 10 PL games, Foden has failed to find the back of the net.
Similar to Haaland though, United are one of his favorite opponents as he has also scored 6 goals in the last four league derbies which included a hat-trick in that 6-3 win along with his striker.
Recent Meetings
City have dominated this fixture in the last few years.
In the previous six derbies in the league, the Cityzens have won five scoring 19 along the way, including that 6-3 hammering in this fixture two seasons ago.
In contrast, United have won just the solitary game in this time. That was the 2-1 win at Old Trafford after a controversial goal by Bruno Fernandes helped Erik ten Hag's Man Utd come out on top. The Red Devils have also managed to score just 7 goals in these last six derbies.
The last time United actually won at the Emptihad was under Ole Gunnar Solskjaer in a 2-0 win thanks to goals from Bruno, who scored an early penalty, and Luke Shaw of all people 😳.
City romped to a double over United last season in which they scored 3 goals in each game conceding just 1 which was that incredible strike by Rashford from all of 30 yards out to give United the unlikely lead.
That proved fruitful as in the end, a double from Phil Foden and a late finish by Erling Haaland gave City the 3 points.
Prediction
With the recent history, Pep's strong record against United, a poor run against our noisy neighbors in recent times, a poor away record against them, a poor record against the big 6 in general and Haaland and Foden's love for scoring against United, I do believe it will be the blue half that come out on top.
2-1.
I've been saying for a while now that if ever there was a game for City to kick-start their season, this will be it. I wouldn't be surprised if we saw them play like prime Barcelona today.
It will be a tight game because I think neither manager will want things to be too open. The two teams are seriously struggling so I doubt that either will want to give the other too many opportunities.
I also don't fully trust our players. Even in their difficult period where we have a higher chance than usual to perhaps get a win, I think we will fall short against our noisy neighbors.
Despite City being so bad, they have players who will give their all whereas the same cannot be said of all our players. That could be the difference as well.
But what is your derby prediction though?
Background Image: Bruno Fernandes | Image via Manchester United official X (@ManUtd)